By Dr. Masimba Mavaza | The Labour Party has assumed control of the United Kingdom’s government after a significant victory in the recent parliamentary elections. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, is now the prime minister, having won 412 seats and establishing a 172-seat majority over the Conservatives, who assumed the position of the opposition after 14 years in power. This result was largely expected, especially after the dramatic and tumultuous period within the Conservative Party. After 14 years in power with five consecutive prime ministers, the U.K.’s Conservative Party was voted out, ceding control to Labour, a center-left party that had run on a platform calling for “change.” The results were anticipated as public support for the Conservatives, or Tories, had eroded amid Brexit, COVID-19, and rising inflation.
Zimbabwe’s long-standing historical and cultural ties with the UK, dating back to the colonial era, mean that the outcome of the elections will impact its relations with the UK. Given the extent of British involvement in foreign development aid, Zimbabwe will be keen to see what a Labour government in the UK means for the country. The UK Labour Party has never been a friend of ZANU PF and has openly advocated for regime change in Zimbabwe. The abandonment of the Lancaster agreement was engineered by the Labour government. Relations between Zimbabwe and the United Kingdom tend to deteriorate when Labour is in power. Labour leaders are mostly dedicated to punishing ZANU PF in any way possible. Now, Zimbabwe waits to see if the incoming Labour government is transformed and reformed.
Labour’s return to power showcases the cyclical nature of British politics, especially as they return to power 14 years after a hung parliament in 2010 led to the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. Previously, Labour had led for 13 years under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and they formed the official opposition during the Conservative tenures of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. Amidst a global economic crisis, the electorate handed power to a Conservative government that promised austerity but also showed faith in a Liberal Democrat party that had sought to carry out radical reforms in the House of Lords and in voting processes.
Cameron’s efforts were rewarded with an outright victory in 2015, partly due to his pledge to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union. This might have marked the beginning of the party’s descent into anti-migration politics, which, under Theresa May and Boris Johnson, would result in more extensive deportation policies. Criticism over the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing stress over the country’s National Health Service, and concerns over economic proposals added to growing opposition support. Furthermore, party infighting resulted in defections, forcing May and Johnson to call elections in 2017 and 2019 respectively in varying attempts to strengthen their positions. Recent leaders Truss and Sunak had been untested by voters, adding to a growing challenge within the party.
Even though the Conservatives were known to have been tough on immigration, during their fourteen years in power, very few Zimbabweans were deported from England. Zimbabweans faced more deportations during Labour’s tenure and very few during Conservative rule. There were also very few negative press statements and publications against Zimbabwe during the Conservative Party’s tenure in office.
Labour, historically anchored in the trade union movement and socialist organizations of the 19th century, has also dealt with its own internal party challenges. After the insurgent election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader in 2015, there was a clash between centrist and socialist members of the party, especially after accusations of anti-Semitism by the party’s leadership. Observers believe that the Labour government will seek to develop closer trading ties with Africa as a way of achieving the economic growth that is a central priority of the incoming government. However, the relationship with Zimbabwe remains uncertain. Labour spells tough times ahead for Zimbabwe.
Labour’s election win, despite low personal popularity ratings for its leader, can be interpreted as more of an anti-government vote and less of a public vote supporting the party’s vision. This might make it difficult to determine the extent of support that Labour might have for its more radical policies. All this does not answer how Labour will interact with Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe was never mentioned in the Labour Party’s manifesto, and Africa was only mentioned once. However, there are two low-hanging fruits that it could seize to change the United Kingdom’s relationship with Zimbabwe to the benefit of both Britain and Zimbabwe: the discovery of oil and the abundance of lithium might make Labour reconsider its attitude toward Zimbabwe.
While many in the UK are focused on what Labour will do domestically, Zimbabwe must ask what this ‘change’ means for Zimbabwean stakeholders. Given that the UK’s relationship with Zimbabwe is not mentioned in Labour’s 136-page manifesto, it is essential to determine whether the new government will move on from the traditional, orthodox approach, which was characterized by viewing Zimbabwe as an enemy. Initially, Labour was fixed on removing Mugabe; now the focus has shifted to Mnangagwa and his party.
A new Labour government has been elected promising “change” after fourteen years of Conservative-led government, including when it comes to the country’s foreign policy, but it is “difficult to predict” what this might mean for UK-Zimbabwe relations. The Labour Party manifesto said that “recognising the growing political and economic importance of African countries, we will deliver a new approach to the continent to foster opportunities for mutual long-term benefit.” We only hope that the new approach treats Zimbabwe fairly.
While it remains to be seen what this “new approach” will mean in practice, it is believed that the government will seek to develop closer trading ties with Africa as a way of achieving the economic growth which is a central priority of the new government. However, it might throw Zimbabwe under the bus in order to please the rest of Western Europe, which is intent on destabilizing Zimbabwe and replacing its government with a group of puppets called the opposition. In its section on foreign policy, the Labour manifesto notes that “Labour’s first mission in government will be to grow our economy” and that “this will be at the heart of everything we do, including our foreign policy.” This suggests that Labour might be economy-oriented, which might mean positive changes towards Zimbabwe, considering that Zimbabwe is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa.
Alex Vines, who leads the Africa Programme at the Chatham House think-tank in London, tells African Business that “the Foreign Secretary David Lammy has said that resetting relations with the Global South is one of his top three priorities – and he has Africa partly in mind.” This then casts a dim view on the relationship with Zimbabwe. Prior to the election, Labour’s then-shadow minister for Africa, Lyn Brown, suggested that an incoming Labour government would seek to help African countries struggling with meeting sovereign bond repayments. However, she did not clarify whether this would mean assisting African countries under the existing G20 “Common Framework” for debt restructuring, or whether the new government would seek to establish new frameworks entirely. This arrangement clearly leaves Zimbabwe behind.
A major policy focus that is not expected to change is the emphasis on development strictly through foreign policy. This approach followed Johnson’s decision to merge the government ministry responsible for international development with the foreign office in 2020. The Department for International Development was a legacy of Tony Blair’s first election win in 1997 and remains a major example of Labour’s commitment to the developing world. Despite an attempt to ensure a consolidated approach to foreign policy and development investment, the impact has been less than ideal for the UK’s global engagements.
It goes without saying that, despite a considerable focus on foreign considerations, it is not Zimbabweans who vote in a British Prime Minister. As a result, Mr. Starmer is likely to prioritize domestic considerations when determining the extent and focus of his government’s foreign interventions. Labour’s first steps for change follow that reality, and it might take some time before Zimbabwe is made aware of how the region will factor into their plans. Zimbabwe will not cry like a baby over spilt milk. Regardless, Zimbabwe can and should negotiate from a position of strength. It also means that in negotiating for trade and aid, there needs to be a clear demand for what is needed and how best to support the country. This will help ensure a pragmatic approach to communicating positions in the early days.
Recent Labour governments have been more active in pushing a regime change agenda, ensuring a more activist role for the UK in Zimbabwean affairs. However, this is not the same Labour of previous years, and it is not yet clear if there is a plan in place for how to engage with Zimbabwe. Things might be different: back in 2022, David Lammy, the new foreign minister, noted that international development should not be driven by paternalism but by mutual partnership and trust. Such sentiment is echoed with the manifesto emphasizing that Labour will “rebuild Britain’s reputation on international development with a new approach based on genuine respect and partnership with the Global South to support our common interests.”
Zimbabwe is not after donations; it expects to be treated as an equal partner. We should not be treated like beggars but partners in trade. We have a lot to offer, as does the UK. “David Lammy has told African diplomatic envoys that there will be an updated Africa strategy, but who will lead on this and what difference it will make is difficult to predict.”
Where this leaves Zimbabwe, only time will tell.